On forecasting epidemics and the role of mobility in Dengue dynamics


In this talk we present recent results on a method based on observability ideas to forecast epidemics through the use of relatively simple mathematical models. We illustrate our ideas on several epidemics and compare our methods with others already published in the literature on the topic. In a second part I present a metapopulation stochastic model with time dependent transition probabilities to explain the appearance of epidemic outbreaks in different regions of a given geographical area as a coupling of weather forcing and human mobility. We illustrate our approach with data from southern states in Mexico.